Top Ten Update (14.02.21): Peru on top

Welcome to our weekly Top Ten update, where we highlight the states most in danger from the pandemic right now. With pandemic numbers now receding in most of the world, the threshold for the top ten dropped from 69 to 67, but six of the former top ten states are still in danger this week, including our new #1 – Peru, where the index added five points to to rising incidence rates and a reproduction rate of 1.15. Two of the newcomers to the list are also Latin American countries which have been among the worst-hit so far – Brazil in 8th place and Mexico which climbed to 4th – but the rest of the list comes from Europe (mostly the Eastern and Balkan regions), including new additions Bulgaria and Northern Macdeonia.

Conspicuously absent from the Top Ten are the United States, which dropped from 10th to 15th place as its cPDI plunged from 69 to 63, as well as the larger European states – Spain at 63 (tied for 15th), Italy at 57 (24th place), Germany and France at 53 (34-35th place) and the UK at 50 (40th place). We’ll soon see if this improvement trend holds.

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Pandemonitor Top Ten Update (08.02.21)

So… we’re kicking off the new design (check it out if you haven’t already) with a new regular spot – the Pandemonitor Top Ten, a weekly glance at the ten states with the top (i. e. worse) cPDI scores, meaning the places that we think are most in danger tight now.

And today’s a good day as any to begin, with a change – after a few weeks in which Portugal was way at the top with a surprising post-Christmans outbreak, today’s top cPDI score goes to Slovakia, a state which has been hit hard in the fall/winter wave, but hadn’t really gotten the numbers down far enough before climbing back up. With an incidence rate of almost 250, reproduction rate over 1, 20% test positivity and an expected 15 deaths per million every day in the next ten days, Slovakia doesn’t seem to catch a break.

Slovakia is joined in the top ten by five other Eastern European countries, among them Hungary, Poland, Albania, Latvia and its neighbor, the Czech Republic, at second place. Latvia and Hungary are the most worrying among them as signs seem to show the pandemic gaining up speed there.

Two more European countries – Iberian neighbors Spain and Portugal – fill the 4th and 9th spots, but both seem to have “rounded the corner” and are at better place than they have been a week or two ago. Rounding up the top 10 are perennial corona-hotspot Peru, where high positivity rates and high mortality mean that any small rise in cases means a rise to the top of our scale, and the United States, where expected mortality remains high despite a recent decrease in new cases.

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