Top Ten Update (27.3.21): The Red East

Today is the Passover Seder, when millions of Jews around the world ask Ma Nishtana – what has changed? – and we’ll join them in this addition of the Top Ten Update, highlighting the changes in the list of states with the worst cPDI (composite Pandemic Danger Index). And we’ll start with the most visible … Read more

Top Ten Update (14.3.21): Changes Galore

Top Ten on Feb 28th
Top Ten Today

Two weeks have passed, and the leaderboard for the Pandemonitor composite Pandemic Danger Index (cPDI) has seen some changes, though not at the top stop: Hungary continues to be the world’s most dangerous COVID-19 hotspot, with mortality expected to hit almost 20 people per million per day in the next ten days and incidence still rising continually, leading to a reproduction rate of 1.27. There have, however, been major changes in the next few spots, with Bosnia and Herzegovina adding 12 cPDI points to rise from 7th to 2nd place. This is mostly due to rising incidence rates which produce a expected mortality of 12 per million per day, most probably because of relatively lax guidelines (low stringency) 10-14 days ago.

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Top Ten Update (28.2.21): It’s getting worse

It’s been a dramatic week at Pandemonitor, with the long-term worldwide trend of ‘slow improvement’ clearly reversing itself: our cPDI, used to moving in small increments, climbed three point (34 to 37) and the threshold for the top ten jumped from 66 to 74. Interestingly enough, the top ten remained surprisingly stable, with only one change: Mexico, which rode a trend of improving results all the way down to 13th place, was replaced by North Macedonia, a returning favorite from two weeks ago. Other than that, the major changes in the list lie in the changes to its order as well as the extreme leaps in the cPDI itself.

Most impressive is the change at #1: Hungary, which had leapt in pandemic danger last week, took the top spot this week, jumping 8 points in cPDI (79 to 87) due to a high new case rate (228 per week per 100,000) which is rapidly rising (reproduction rate = 1.42). A high test positivity rate (15%) and rising mortality also contribute their share.

The quickest rise in cPDI the top ten this week, however, does not belong to Hungaria but to Bulgaria, which leaped 12 points in cPDI (67 to 79) and landed squarely in fifth place. Bulgaria has been experiencing a constant rise in incidence rates since mid-January, but in the past week it’s picked up speed, with reproduction rate rising to 1.27. The relatively high incidence and the high mortality rate result in a grim forecast from our expected mortality model – 56 deaths per day, i. e. 8 per day per million.

It might be also interesting to note that in the Latin American states on the top ten things are also getting worse – but not as fast: Peru gained only 1 point in cPDI (and fell from first to third place) while Brazil gained 3 points (and fell from 4th to 8th). With the situation starting to deteriorate at other Balkan states (such as Moldova and Serbia in 11th and 12th place), we might have to bid Brazil farewell next time.

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Top Ten Update (14.02.21): Peru on top

Welcome to our weekly Top Ten update, where we highlight the states most in danger from the pandemic right now. With pandemic numbers now receding in most of the world, the threshold for the top ten dropped from 69 to 67, but six of the former top ten states are still in danger this week, including our new #1 – Peru, where the index added five points to to rising incidence rates and a reproduction rate of 1.15. Two of the newcomers to the list are also Latin American countries which have been among the worst-hit so far – Brazil in 8th place and Mexico which climbed to 4th – but the rest of the list comes from Europe (mostly the Eastern and Balkan regions), including new additions Bulgaria and Northern Macdeonia.

Conspicuously absent from the Top Ten are the United States, which dropped from 10th to 15th place as its cPDI plunged from 69 to 63, as well as the larger European states – Spain at 63 (tied for 15th), Italy at 57 (24th place), Germany and France at 53 (34-35th place) and the UK at 50 (40th place). We’ll soon see if this improvement trend holds.

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