Top Ten Update (27.3.21): The Red East

Today is the Passover Seder, when millions of Jews around the world ask Ma Nishtana – what has changed? – and we’ll join them in this addition of the Top Ten Update, highlighting the changes in the list of states with the worst cPDI (composite Pandemic Danger Index). And we’ll start with the most visible … Read more

Top Ten Update (14.3.21): Changes Galore

Top Ten on Feb 28th
Top Ten Today

Two weeks have passed, and the leaderboard for the Pandemonitor composite Pandemic Danger Index (cPDI) has seen some changes, though not at the top stop: Hungary continues to be the world’s most dangerous COVID-19 hotspot, with mortality expected to hit almost 20 people per million per day in the next ten days and incidence still rising continually, leading to a reproduction rate of 1.27. There have, however, been major changes in the next few spots, with Bosnia and Herzegovina adding 12 cPDI points to rise from 7th to 2nd place. This is mostly due to rising incidence rates which produce a expected mortality of 12 per million per day, most probably because of relatively lax guidelines (low stringency) 10-14 days ago.

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Top Ten Update (28.2.21): It’s getting worse

It’s been a dramatic week at Pandemonitor, with the long-term worldwide trend of ‘slow improvement’ clearly reversing itself: our cPDI, used to moving in small increments, climbed three point (34 to 37) and the threshold for the top ten jumped from 66 to 74. Interestingly enough, the top ten remained surprisingly stable, with only one change: Mexico, which rode a trend of improving results all the way down to 13th place, was replaced by North Macedonia, a returning favorite from two weeks ago. Other than that, the major changes in the list lie in the changes to its order as well as the extreme leaps in the cPDI itself.

Most impressive is the change at #1: Hungary, which had leapt in pandemic danger last week, took the top spot this week, jumping 8 points in cPDI (79 to 87) due to a high new case rate (228 per week per 100,000) which is rapidly rising (reproduction rate = 1.42). A high test positivity rate (15%) and rising mortality also contribute their share.

The quickest rise in cPDI the top ten this week, however, does not belong to Hungaria but to Bulgaria, which leaped 12 points in cPDI (67 to 79) and landed squarely in fifth place. Bulgaria has been experiencing a constant rise in incidence rates since mid-January, but in the past week it’s picked up speed, with reproduction rate rising to 1.27. The relatively high incidence and the high mortality rate result in a grim forecast from our expected mortality model – 56 deaths per day, i. e. 8 per day per million.

It might be also interesting to note that in the Latin American states on the top ten things are also getting worse – but not as fast: Peru gained only 1 point in cPDI (and fell from first to third place) while Brazil gained 3 points (and fell from 4th to 8th). With the situation starting to deteriorate at other Balkan states (such as Moldova and Serbia in 11th and 12th place), we might have to bid Brazil farewell next time.

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Top Ten Update (21.2.21): A Hungarian Leap

Welcome to our weekly Top Ten update, where we highlight the states most in danger from the pandemic right now. And while Peru retains the top spot for the 2nd week running, much of the rest of the top ten is made up of states in Eastern Europe. In fact, while the situation in the world in general keeps getting slowly better (world cPDI is down from 35 to 34, and the threshold for the top ten diminished from 67 to 66), danger level in Eastern Europe climbed from 55 to 58, led mostly by a big jump in Hungary (from 74 to 79, bringing it from 5th place to 3rd).

The Hungarian leap stems mostly from a new rise in new cases, leading to a reproduction rate of 1.22. This, together with an abysmal mortality rate (6.4%) and rising test positivity (up to 11.2%) makes Hungary a major contender for the top spot in coming weeks. With Stringency in Hungary unchanged for a pretty long time, this rise in new cases is most likely the result of the infectious British mutation taking hold.

Elsewhere in the top ten, Brazil switched with Mexico as the second country of concern (aside from Peru) in Latin America, as the reproduction rate in Mexico dropped to 0.83 yet stayed around 1 in Brazil. At the bottom of the to top ten, two new entries replaced their neighbors, with Estonia overtaking Latvia (the Latvians lost 4 cPDI points and fell to 16th place) and Bosnia and Herzegovina replacing North Macedonia (but the Macedonians are still not far away from the top ten, at #12).

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